Key Senate Races
CO (D) Bennet vs. (R) Buck
In 2006 and 2008 independent voters started to swing strongly for the Democrat party. Nowhere is this more evident than Colorado which holds one largest percentage of independent voter. One of the major themes of this election has been the mass exodus of independent voters from the Democrat to the Republican party. If Ken Buck downs Michael Bennet, this would be an obvious confirmation of this mass migration.
Key House Races
LA - 2 (R) Cao vs. (D) Richmond
Anh Cao initially won this race after the disgraced William Jefferson was booted from Congress, but he is the most identifiable target for a Democrat pickup. Cao represents an extremely liberal region of the south. Any Republican would struggle to hold this seat. This is an obvious Democrat pickup, so if Cao holds his seat, it means the Democrats are in for a very long night.
MN - 8 (D) Oberstar vs. (R) Cravaack
The Minnesota 8th district represents the typical working class Whites district that has been a staple for the Democrat party for decades. A Democrat has represented this district since the 1940's. That's why a late poll showing Jim Oberstar in a dead heat with underfunded political unknown Chip Cravaack has a lot of Democrats nervous as to what kind of election this will be. If Cravaack topples Oberstar, it may represent a dramatic shift in the attitudes of the working class towards the party they have so often identified themselves with. If Oberstar is in trouble, how many other surprise races like his will pop up on election day?
NY - 1 (D) Bishop vs. (R) Altschuler
NY - 2 (D) Israel vs. (R) Gomez
NY - 4 (D) McCarthy vs. (R) Becker
NY - 13 (D) McMahon vs. (R) Grimm
NY - 19 (D) Hall vs. (R) Hayworth
NY - 20 (D) Murphy vs. (R) Gibson
NY - 22 (D) Hinchey vs. (R) Phillips
NY - 23 (D) Owens vs. (R) Doheny
NY - 24 (D) Arcuri vs. (R) Hanna
NY - 25 (D) Maffei vs. (R) Buerkle
NY - 27 (D) Higgens vs. (R) Roberto
NY - 29 (D) Zeller vs. (R) Reed
I post these races to demonstrate just how up in the air this election is. This is one state. These are the races that are considered competitive. The same could be said and done for Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. How many of these seats could be picked up? Who knows. But a few percentage points in the national trend could very well mean the difference between a massive turnover and a slim majority.
Key Governor Races
CO (D) Hickenlooper vs. (I) Tancredo
The TEA party movement has sent shockwaves down the spines of both parties. Initially, there was fear of a potential third party but quite the opposite happened. Instead you see Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski running independently after what would have been their demise in the primary. The one exception has been Tom Tancredo who entered the race for governor after his disgust with the field of Republican candidates. It looked like Hickenlooper was going to sneak in with a divided Republican vote but more and more Republicans have fled from Maes and jumped onto the Tancredo express. Polls now show a neck and neck race with Hickenlooper in the lead but Tancredo with the momentum.
RI (D) Caprio vs. (R) Robitaille vs. (I) Chafee
The Rhode Island governor race has to be one of the most bizarre in the nation. Democrat Frank Caprio looked in control, but a brush-up with President Obama and late floundering has seen him plummet in the polls. This propelled Lincoln Chafee into the lead. It also appears that as Caprio has crashed, so has John Robitaille surged. Each candidate has a legitimate claim to a path to victory.