This election has all of the experts in a state of panic. There is so much uncertainty about what will actually happen on Tuesday that even the most seasoned of analysts are throwing up their hands. Time will tell what really will happen, but in the meanwhile I can throw out my speculations as to what this election brings. Here are five bold predictions about what we will see happen this election.
1. Republicans will win a majority of the women vote.
This may not seem that bold until you realize that Barack Obama won the women vote in 2008 by a percentage of 56 to 43%. A fifteen point swing would represent a major, major shift in the electorate. Women traditionally have sided with the Democrat party over the Republicans, but the introduction of a host of female Republican candidates (Angle, Fiorina, Whitman, Ayotte, Haley, O'Donnell, etc.), the influence of Sarah Palin, and the nastiness with which these candidates have been treated by the media and Democrats has softened women to the Republican party. I predict a Republican majority in the female vote.
2. Democrats will receive less than 80% of the Black vote.
Again, this may not sound like a big deal until you realize that President Obama won more than 95% of the Black vote. Historically, African-Americans have voted for Democrats 85% of the time. But the unending charge of racism is starting to lose its charge and more and more Blacks are identifying themselves as conservative. I predict that 2012 will see a brief revival out of loyalty to President Obama, but 2010 could represent the signs of fracturing of this solidly Democrat voting block.
3. The suburbs will come out for Republicans.
In recent elections, the rural areas have been trending Republican while the suburbs have been trending Democrat. This has led to states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio taking a decidedly Democrat shift while states like New Jersey, which has traditionally been a purple state, has turned solid blue. I predict that states like Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York will make the most drastic swing to the right.
4. The largest percentage of Democrats in recent electoral memory will vote Republican.
In many states, particularly in the south and mid-west, a large group of Democrats have continued to vote Democrat out of loyalty. These individuals are typically socially conservative, fiscally centrist. The kind of Democrats they back are what has been popularly termed "blue dog" Democrats. But increasingly these Democrats are feeling that they don't have a voice in the party. They didn't approve of Obamacare and they feel that spending is beyond what they feel comfortable with. Roughly 90% of Democrats went for President Obama. I predict that to fall to below 85%.
5. The wealthy vote will once again return to Republicans.
The Republican party has been called the party of the rich. Unfortunately, the facts would argue that the Democrat party has been the party of the rich in recent elections. In 2008, the income groups that President Obama won were all groups under $50,000 AND those making over $200,000. Both the middle class and the upper class should swing decidedly Republican, but the most notable shift is a return of the wealthy to the Republican party.
So these are the five surprises of the 2010 election. I'll get into the most surprised group later, but I can already predict two responses. I expect the "experts" to be stunned by the results Tuesday and I predict liberal commentators to be confident that the results are a product of congress and President Obama not being liberal enough in their agenda.