It’s May. Six months before the election. That’s an important thing to note before starting any analysis of where the race for the White House now stands because so very much can change almost instantaneously depending on national and international events. Six months is an eternity in politics, so no political analyst – no matter how wise and experienced – can truly make an accurate prediction of what will happen in November with any certitude. With that caveat established, here’s the truth: right now, Obama’s fortunes are not looking as rosy as what his team would have you believe.
If you want proof, just totally ignore Mitt Romney, totally ignore a reenergized tea party following the Mourdock win in Indiana, totally ignore the polls, and watch Obama and his surrogates only. That will demonstrate to you how confident they are about their current prospects. Two specific examples recently speak the truth that this will be no cakewalk for the president.
First, President Obama speaking at his second LGBT event in recent days (which in and of itself could be interpreted as a sign of desperation) blasted the Republican strategy that is annoying him:
The only thing that is holding us back is the fact that things are still tough out there. There are still too many people without work and there are still too many people who are struggling to get by even if they have work.
And what's also is going to make this a very close race is the fact that you've got special interests and these Super PACs that are spending money on negative ads in unprecedented ways. And their message is going to be very simple:
'You know what? You're frustrated, you're dissatisfied and it's Obama's fault.'
Hmmm, this opposed to Obama’s 2008 message that, “you’re frustrated, you’re dissatisfied, and it’s all Bush’s fault.” Or then there’s Obama’s 2009 message, his 2010 message, his 2011 message and apparently his 2012 message that, “you’re frustrated, you’re dissatisfied, and it’s all Bush’s fault.” You tell me which one of those two strategies will resound with voters in this coming election. Given that Barack Obama himself said at the beginning of his term that if the economy hadn’t turned around in three years he would be “looking at a one-term proposition,” it should be pretty clear.
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Suffice it to say that after complaining about Bush being responsible for everything that is wrong with the economy for four years, Mr. Obama is going to have a tough sell blasting Republicans when they blame him.
Second, a recent New York Times/CBS News poll shows that a majority of Americans believe Obama’s sudden embrace of gay marriage was done for primarily political reasons. How does the Obama campaign respond? Check this out:
"I don't want to go through methodology on your show, I think your viewers would get bored by it," Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter told MSNBC. "But they sampled a biased sample, so they re-biased the same sample. I think the results of that poll are pretty flawed."
Put simply: if the Obama administration is to the point where they have to accuse the New York Times and CBS of being biased against them in order to explain away bad news, things aren’t trending well for them.