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There's a lot of talk about the national polls and how well Obama is fairing in them despite the terrible economy.  And frankly, I am shocked that 48% of the country says they approve of the job this president is doing.  It defies reason and explanation.  Who are these people, exactly? 

And as a result of these abnormally and unreasonably high levels of personal approval, that's a wholly different matter than saying President Obama is in good shape heading into the 2012 election cycle.  There are so many polls to look at, so many internals to study that you can keep a political nerd busy for months prognosticating and predicting outcomes.  But ultimately, this election will hinge on what happens over the course of the next several months - who the Republican nominee is, whether there's any economic rebound, what the unemployment rate looks like, any foreign affairs issues...the very kind of thing that polls can't and don't account for.

But for those who really want a snapshot of where we are in terms of "if the election were held today," a lot of depressed Republicans and heartened Democrats might be surprised.  Keep in mind we do not elect our president based on who has the most votes.  What matters is the outcome of various states, and the corresponding electoral votes those states have.  And in that department, according to Gallup, it's not good news for Mr. O:

Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.

As if that isn't bad enough, Gallup notes that in five states where Obama currently holds an advantage (Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Michigan), he is experiencing waning popularity.  Those states account for 61 electoral votes.  Not that I think Obama will really lose Massachusetts - but remember Romney was once Governor of that state - but if that trend continues, and you add 61 electoral votes to the Republican total and subtract them from Obama's the election becomes a landslide: 384 to 154. 

When I've said that this man is landslide beatable, this is what I meant.